I can think of at least four ways a pundit could spin this:
1. One could emphasize the precipitous drop from 18% to 15.9% that’s occurred in the last 2 quarters.
2. One could point out that the uninsured rate, as measured by Gallup, hasn’t been this low since 2008.
3. One could point out that the uninsured rate is not substantially different today than it was at the height of the (official) recession, when unemployment was over 10%.
4. One could point out that the uninsured rate was nearly identical in 2011, so what progress has really been made?
I don’t interpret this graph in any of those ways. I only point this out because I think it illustrates a) why it’s important to look at the data yourself instead of swallowing the headlines hook line and sinker, and b) how tempting it can be to assert causal stories based on mere correlations, even though there is no causal information here about Obamacare, nor anything else, whatsoever.
It’s a good mental exercise to stare at this graph while resisting the urge to draw causal conclusions. Link meditation for wonks.